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Strategy

The idea is to show my predictions of the selected UFC fights in a way that would make the most expected profit. I will compare the odds from the official www.ufc.com page (or some other odds site like www.oddstrader.com when UFC doesn't provide) to my perceived odds. To simplify how my perceived odds will look, I decided to divide the possibilities of my selection into five categories:

 

  1. Huge favorite. One of the opponents has a tremendous edge over another and an immense likelihood of winning a fight. In numbers, the odds are -900 (90% of winning).

  2. Big favorite. This fighter is not as heavily dominant as a Huge favorite but holds a great chance. In numbers, the odds are -400 (80% of winning).

  3. Decent favorite. This fighter cannot be considered dominant, but the likelihood of winning a fight is significant. In numbers, the odds are -233 (70% of winning).

  4. Small favorite. The opponents seem almost equally matched, with this one still having a slightly better chance. In numbers, the odds are -150 (60% of winning).

  5. Coinflip. The opponents seem equally matched. In numbers, the odds are 100 (50% of winning).

 

For every fight that interests me, I will create an overview explaining why a fighter belongs to a particular category. Then, I will "bet" an imaginary $100 on any profitable option.

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