UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira (Oct 11, 2023) + RESULTS

These are my fighter picks (odds to win from bookmakers next to a fighter name) for the 21st event trying out the Strategy:

Alex Pereira -130

Jéssica Andrade +164

To make these picks, I chose three pairs of fighters I believed I knew enough about to beat the odds. My odds - predictions:

Jiří Procházka (40%) vs. Alex Pereira (60%)

"Jiří Procházka has an outstanding 13-fight winning streak, but he faces the man who can make him pay big time for the reckless style. Alex Pereira is a Small favorite."

Sergei Pavlovich (50%) vs. Tom Aspinall (50%)

"Sergei Pavlovich is an absolute KO machine, but so is Tom Aspinall. Sergei is probably a little bit more intimidating. Tom might be the most technical striker that Sergei will fight since his lone loss to Alistair Overeem. This fight is a Coinflip."

Mackenzie Dern (60%) vs. Jéssica Andrade (40%)

"To beat Jéssica Andrade, her opponent needs to bully her. Can Mackenzie Dern do that? Mackenzie is a Small favorite."

Then, I compared my predictions against the odds from www.ufc.com (odds in olive green from DraftKings because the UFC page didn't have them displayed) and picked profitable options (for these options +- was positive, meaning bookmakers offered better odds than I perceived):

As you can see, the +- for both fighters in Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall was not positive, which made picking any of them unprofitable.

RESULTS

Alex Pereira beat Jiří Procházka +$77

Alex Pereira proved he is a superior striker and knocked Jiří Procházka out. However, even though Jiří admitted to being out after the fight, the stoppage was too early. Marc Goddard is a horrible referee who constantly makes this mistake, and I would love UFC to stop letting him referee the most important fights.

Jéssica Andrade beat Mackenzie Dern +$164

Mackenzie Dern couldn't bully Jéssica Andrade and got destroyed on the feet.

Balance before the event:

+$541

Balance after the event:

+$782